the nugget

Confirmation Bias: People tend to notice information that aligns with their beliefs and they tend to seek information that confirms what they already believe is true.

Answer the following questions and keep track of your results:

1) Have you noticed that people act “crazier” during a full moon?

2) Do you believe left-handed people are more creative than right-handed people?

3) Do you swear that a certain group of people (for example, Maryland residents) drive worse than others?

4) Do you stick to a specific news source because others are “inaccurate” or “biased”?

If you answered “Yes” to any of these, then chances are that you’re suffering from confirmation bias. This can often lead to sub-optimal results, because by failing to challenge our opinions, we often fail to reach the right answer (when a right answer exists).

Don’t feel down on yourself though. Research shows that confirmation bias affects people across different occupations and experiences:

• Medicine: Studies show that about 13% of psychiatrics and 25% of theirs students suffer from confirmation bias when making a diagnosis.

• Business: Many organizations hire using confirmatory information. They ask things like “What makes you the right person for the job” rather than “What did you hate about your last job?”

• Everyone!: Take a look at this video showing everyday people falling prey to confirmation bias.

the application

As you may be aware, Taylor Swift recently re-recorded and re-released her Red album, titled Red (Taylor’s Version).

While there’s a lot to unpack, her ‘All Too Well’ short film that accompanied the re-released song is drawing specific attention because of speculation that it’s based on her relationship with now ex-boyfriend Jake Gyllenhaal.

Fans specifically point out the following easter eggs as support:

• The Beard: The actor in Swift’s video sports a beard closely resembling Gyllenhaal’s

• The Age Difference: The two actors in the video are separated by 11 years compared to the 9 between Swift and Gyllenhaal while they dated

• The Fall Backdrop: A scene in the woods from the video bears a striking similarity to the paparazzi photos of Swift and Gyllenhaal when they dated in 2010

Amidst all the internet speculation, there’s a notable lack of searching for evidence that might disprove the Gyllenhaal connection (for example, Swift commented that the song “is all about what the fans have turned the song into…this is just me following through on what they started and told me they wanted.”

We’re not saying there isn’t a connection. But the arguments would be more convincing if people tried harder to prove themselves wrong first.

the insight

Business leaders make tough decisions all the time but they, like all humans, tend to look for evidence that reinforces their original opinion. So, how do you overcome the confirmation bias?

Good leaders and managers must seek information that could disconfirm their views. Ask yourself what info could prove you wrong and seek that info out.

For example, if you have a suspicion that people are crazy during full moons, then go out looking for crazy people during a moonless night. Or if you’re considering launching a new product line, ask your team to bring you five reasons why you shouldn’t launch the line.

the ask

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